58 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN August 2024 PROVIDING MID-MARKET CATTLEMEN A TEAM TO HELP THEM GET MORE OUT OF THEIR BUSINESS RISK MANAGEMENT - FEEDER CATTLE - FEEDLOT OPERATIONS - FEED MERCHANDISING 712-785-3766 www.balance4ward.com carcass weight was a full 30 pounds heavier than it was a year ago and asked you to guess whether fed cattle prices were higher or lower vs. a year ago, you would probably tell me you didn’t have to guess because you knew the answer – correct? The fact that Chart 1 can look the way it does, and yet we’ve stamped in new, all-time dressed fed cattle market highs for five of the past seven weeks is something I find absolutely intriguing. Packers sell beef, but to do so they must buy cattle. In a relative sense, cattle are somewhat scarce right now – even though beef, in a relative sense, is not – due, in large part, to increased carcass weights. (Chart 2: Beef Production.) Short to medium term, carcass weights are likely to remain at out-sized levels due to the difference in prevailing fed cattle prices and feedlot costs of gain. As of early July, it makes economic sense to continue adding weight to cattle currently on feed as long as each pound can be added for something less than $190 to 195 per hundredweight. In a somewhat over-simplified way, therein lies the math behind Chart 1. M-S-18 06/28/24 ϯϴϬ ϰϬϬ ϰϮϬ ϰϰϬ ϰϲϬ ϰϴϬ ϱϬϬ ϱϮϬ ϱϰϬ ϱϲϬ ϱϴϬ : E WZ :h> K d Dŝů͘ WŽƵŶĚƐ Chart 2: BEEF PRODUCTION &ĞĚĞƌĂůůLJ /ŶƐƉĞĐƚĞĚ͕ tĞĞŬůLJ ǀŐ͘ ϮϬϭϴͲϮϮ ϮϬϮϯ ϮϬϮϰ ĂƚĂ ^ŽƵƌĐĞ͗ h^ Ͳ D^ Θ h^ ͲE ^^ >ŝǀĞƐƚŽĐŬ DĂƌŬĞƚŝŶŐ /ŶĨŽƌŵĂƚŝŽŶ ĞŶƚĞƌ C-S-34 06/28/24 ϰϱ ϱϬ ϱϱ ϲϬ ϲϱ ϳϬ ϳϱ ϴϬ ϴϱ ϵϬ : E WZ :h> K d dŚŽƵ͘ ,ĞĂĚ Chart 3: BEEF COW SLAUGHTER &ĞĚĞƌĂůůLJ /ŶƐƉĞĐƚĞĚ͕ tĞĞŬůLJ ǀŐ͘ ϮϬϭϴͲϮϮ ϮϬϮϯ ϮϬϮϰ ĂƚĂ ^ŽƵƌĐĞ͗ h^ Ͳ D^ Θ h^ ͲE ^^ >ŝǀĞƐƚŽĐŬ DĂƌŬĞƚŝŶŐ /ŶĨŽƌŵĂƚŝŽŶ ĞŶƚĞƌ MARKETS CONTINUED FROM PAGE 56 CONTINUED ON PAGE 60 The U.S. family summer travel season has essentially been compressed into the 60 +/- days of June and July, following the trend over the past few years of schools closing later and opening sooner. ... Maybe July 4 is the new Memorial Day.
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