16 Nebraska Cattleman December 2023 W W O By Eric Hunt, Ph.D., Assistant Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience University of Nebraska-Lincoln Bottom Line Up Front Temperatures this winter are generally expected to be above average statewide, and total precipitation, including snowfall, is expected to be above average in southern Nebraska and around average elsewhere. The Official CPC Outlook The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released its first winter outlook on Oct. 19 with a projection of warmer than average temperatures in the northern section of the United States, including northeast Nebraska, and wetter than average conditions across southern Nebraska with “equal chances” for above average, average and below average precipitation across the northern two-thirds of Nebraska. This outlook is strongly weighted to the expectation of a moderate to strong El Niño and its associated stronger subtropical jet persisting through the climatological winter (December-February) into next spring. Past Precedent Past precedent would suggest that the winter outlook has a reasonable chance of verifying the CPC’s outlook, particularly on temperature. Of the past six strong El Niños, five were warm to very warm across the entire north central United States. A composite of the last four strong El Niño events (1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016) reveals temperatures 2° F to 4° F above average in Nebraska’s western and southern climate divisions and 4° F to 6° F above average in the state’s northern and eastern climate divisions. Thus, higher than usual confidence can be placed on our winter temperatures being statistically above average. While there is a strong signal toward warmer than average temperatures this winter, the outlook is less clear for precipitation. The most recent strong El Niño (2015-2016) was wetter than average in the state’s eastern third thanks to a very wet December. But a composite of the previous four strong CONTINUED ON PAGE 18
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