18 Nebraska Cattleman December 2023 El Niños shows that precipitation was about average across the state. It is worth noting that none of the most recent strong El Niños produced a significantly drier than average winter for any climate division in the state. Drought Outlook The outlook gives me cautious optimism that we won’t go backward on drought in western and north central sections of the state where there has been significant drought improvement this year. This would bode well for pastures next spring. In the eastern section of the state where drought is most severe, total eradication of the drought between now and next spring is not likely. But one anomalous rainfall event on unfrozen soil, as was the case in December 2015, would significantly improve root-zone soil moisture and lead to better pasture conditions in eastern Nebraska next spring. Not that they could be much worse than this past spring. All in all, it seems reasonable to say that we may chip away at drought a bit this winter in central and eastern Nebraska but not see radical changes. Context and Caveats With Seasonal Outlooks However, there is often more to the story than just the headline and first paragraph. While the winter is expected to be statistically warmer than average and around average for precipitation, this does not mean that we couldn’t have a brutal 10- to 14-day stretch following a polar vortex disruption (remember February 2021?). It could also mean that being mild is more a reflection of having a lot of days with highs of 37° F and a low of 27° F because of persistent overcast (particularly in the eastern one-sixth of the state). In other words, maybe we trade more bitter cold for more raw cold. It is worth noting that in most of the previous strong El Niños, January tended to be a bit closer to average, and either December or February was unusually mild. This would be a bit of a break with recent trends as Januarys have generally been mild and often warmer than either February or December. Then there is the tendency for a seasonal outlook to be overly bullish on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO; warm for El Niño and cold for La Niña) state. Using an ENSO state for a seasonal outlook is kind of like predicting wins for a football team based on its quarterback. No serious football analyst would ignore the skill of a starting quarterback in making preseason projections of win totals, and no serious forecaster ignores the ENSO state for a winter outlook. But just as there is more to having a good football WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK • CONTINUED FROM PAGE 16 CONTINUED ON PAGE 20
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