20 Nebraska Cattleman December 2023 December 2023 Nebr. Cattlemen 1/2 Page 7.25” x 4.875” www.dodgemfg.com Call Today! 402-693-2221 Brute Bud Tub team than just a great quarterback (see the Los Angeles Chargers for evidence), there is also more to an outlook than just the phase of ENSO. While the CPC’s outlook of a warm northern United States makes sense to me based on past stronger El Niño events and may well verify this outlook (especially on temperature), El Niño is not the only game in town. Other factors besides ENSO can be equally or sometimes even more important for our winter weather. Those factors are, but not limited to, the dominant phase(s) of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), sea ice anomalies, Siberian snow cover in October and November, and sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. For example, Phase 1 of the MJO in the winter tends to be wetter and colder in our area (meteorologyto-English translation: more snow) and Phase 4 tends to be warmer and drier. The extent of Siberian snow cover in the fall has been linked to polar vortex disruptions in the winter, which in turn can favor extreme cold outbreaks into the central and eastern U.S. Unfortunately, predictability of the MJO is currently only good out to about two weeks. There is some skill at projection of polar vortex disruptions in the sub-seasonal to seasonal timeframe but only so far as to say that conditions are more/less favorable for such an event. For what it’s worth, Judah Cohen, Ph.D., of Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), stated in his AO Blog on Oct. 23 that a large disruption could occur around the end of the year. If that happens, our mild winter may be taking a vacation in January, especially in eastern Nebraska. Be Prepared Even though an overall mild winter is expected, my best advice for the upcoming winter is to be prepared for the blizzards and rapid swings in temperature by staying on top of outlooks and not to expect a significant improvement in drought conditions in the hardest hit areas in eastern Nebraska between December and early March. NC Even though an overall mild winter is expected, my best advice for the upcoming winter is to be prepared for the blizzards and rapid swings in temperature by staying on top of outlooks. WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK • CONTINUED FROM PAGE 18
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