40 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN December 2025 PEERS 2026 CATTLE COMPLEX OUTLOOK ELLIOTT DENNIS, PH.D. | ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LIVESTOCK AND MARKETING ECONOMIST, UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA-LINCOLN 2025 HIGHLIGHTS As we come to the close of this year, 2025 has truly been historic in many ways. Consider a few of these: • U.S. beef demand reached record highs in Q2-2025 (up 34 percent from 2000) with consumers sustaining strong purchases even at higher prices. • The Choice cutout stayed elevated longer than usual as packers found new value in chuck and round primals amid tight cull cow supplies. • Tariff friction with China reduced beef exports, but export market diversification limited some of the effect. Tarriff talks from President Trump shook the markets. • Heavy carcass weights persisted as cheap corn and low grid discounts make feeding cattle longer more profitable than marketing lighter animals. • Feeder prices hit record highs across weights while heifer retention remained limited despite strong fundamentals and high cull cow values. PRICE FORECASTS FOR 2026 To provide clarity and a breadth of opinion, I have compiled my own forecast and then compared it to organizations for which I provide input, namely the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) and the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). I compare production and prices where possible and provide a “composite” forecast that producers can use to represent an average of opinions. In addition, for price estimates, I include the CME futures contract prices plus a Nebraska basis adjustment. Table 1 shows these forecasts across different individuals/organizations. KEY MARKET DRIVERS FOR 2026 Here I review the fundamentals that I believe will drive the market in 2026 and are the basis for my quantity and price projections by quarter in 2026. CONSUMER DEMAND Beef demand is a function of the quantity consumers are willing to purchase at certain prices. Whether beef demand increases or decreases is a function of both these factors. Consumers have shown exceptional resilience at higher prices in 2025. For example, in Q2-2025 beef demand was 134, meaning that beef demand was 34 percent higher in 2025 than in 2000. Comparing this high historically, this was the highest demand ever I II III IV Production, Millions of pounds USDA-ERS 6,335 6,235 6,335 6,150 25,055 LMIC 6,252 6,153 6,089 6,174 24,668 UNL 6,280 6,125 6,174 6,227 24,806 Composite 6,289 6,171 6,199 6,184 24,843 Per capita disappearance, retail pounds USDA-ERS 14.50 14.30 14.40 13.80 57.00 LMIC 15.25 15.03 14.51 14.35 59.14 UNL 14.80 14.40 14.20 13.80 57.20 Composite 14.85 14.58 14.37 13.98 57.78 Steers 5-area Direct, Total all grades, dollars/cwt USDA-ERS 247.00 248.00 250.00 247.00 248.00 LMIC 239.00 242.50 237.00 243.50 240.50 CME 232.25 235.36 225.63 217.15 227.60 UNL 235.00 239.00 241.00 238.00 238.25 Composite 238.31 241.22 238.41 236.41 238.59 Feeder steers 700-900, Medium Frame No. 1, Nebraska, dollars/cwt USDA-ERS 374.00 376.00 375.00 375.00 375.00 LMIC 370.00 377.00 375.00 378.00 375.00 CME 352.90 357.53 351.10 349.00 352.63 UNL 362.00 384.00 382.00 375.00 375.75 Composite 364.73 373.63 370.78 369.25 369.60 Feeder steers 500-600, Medium Frame No. 1, Nebraska, dollars/cwt LMIC 444.00 455.00 460.00 438.00 449.25 UNL 444.90 448.53 432.10 428.00 438.38 Composite 444.45 451.76 446.05 433.00 443.82 Feeder heifers 500-600, Medium Frame No. 1, Nebraska, dollars/cwt UNL 410.00 424.00 430.00 425.00 422.25 Feeder heifers 700-900, Medium Frame No. 1, Nebraska, dollars/cwt UNL 324.00 335.00 342.00 341.00 335.50 2026 Quarter: Annual Table 1. 2025 Production and Price Forecasts. CONTINUED ON PAGE 42
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