42 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN January 2025 PERSPECTIVES CattleFax Seminar Focuses on 2025 Economy, Weather, Cattle Market and Beyond KELSEY POPE | CONTRIBUTING WRITER Nearly one month after the presidential election, many topics during the CattleFax 2025 Outlook & Strategies Seminar focused on the political climate and how it affects the economy and agriculture. The annual seminar, held in-person and virtually on Dec. 3, 2024, in Denver, Colo., also imparted U.S. and global agricultural market trends and weather analysis. Recurring themes among both staff and guest presenters included beef quality, weather impacts, volatility in cattle markets and the future outlook for the cattle cycle. Global Economy and Political Climate As a global economy, inflation is still a forward-facing issue, although it is manageable, according to guest speaker Jan Lambregts, RaboResearch. He added that the economy is not in an alarming recession territory, yet growth looks to be tepid. “The worrisome story is, ʻAre we trapped by stagflation?’ With slow economic growth, high unemployment and high inflation, growth isn’t coming along like we’d like it to,” Lambregts said. Regarding the recent election, Lambregts is sensing a much different presidency, noting a contrast between the perceived chaos of the first Trump presidency and the more current strategic approach. “Trump’s playbook is likely including deregulation and tax cuts to stimulate the economy, and integration of immigration and defense spending into the broader policy framework,” Lambregts added. “Threat of tariffs is framed more as a geopolitical tool rather than a standalone economic policy.” National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s Colin Woodall joined the lineup of guest speakers to cover the political environment affecting beef production and what to expect for ag policy in 2025. Woodall revealed Trump’s picks for key cabinet positions, Farm Bill and the current concerns on tariffs impacting agriculture. “The nominee for secretary of agriculture – Brooke Rollins – knows agriculture,” Woodall said. “She knows the process of policy and could be one of the best-connected secretaries of agriculture to the president we’ve seen in some time.” Woodall acknowledged that Trump was good to agriculture in his first term, and he’s optimistic about the second term, but it’s not going to be carte blanche getting everything agriculture wants. “Trump got what he wanted announcing tariffs; he got Mexico and Canada’s attention,” Woodall said. “Who knows what will happen between now and Jan. 20, 2025. They just might decide to cooperate. It’s the art of the deal.” The political environment impacting ag trade was touched on by Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation. Tariff talks concerning Mexico and Canada can greatly impact U.S. beef and pork exports; about 29 percent of U.S. red meat exports are going to our bordering neighbors. “We have an efficient, integrated system of red meat going to Canda and Mexico,” Halstrom stated. “Protecting our free trade agreements has to be a priority.” Halstrom also shared about strong export markets from the past year and opportunities for 2025, allowing exports to add value to the cattle business. Beef exports are expected to end 2024 near even in terms of volume, yet value is up 5 percent. 2025 beef exports are forecast to be down slightly in Randy Blach addressed 2025 CattleFax Outlook & Strategies Seminar attendees on market factors to watch in 2025. As a global economy, inflation is still a forward-facing issue, although it is manageable, according to guest speaker Jan Lambregts, RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets.
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