January 2025 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN 43 Meteorologist Matt Makens detailed historical data to support that drought frequency has increased since 1998. U.S. Meat Export Federation’s Dan Halstrom shared about strong export markets from the past year and opportunities for 2025, allowing exports to add value to the cattle business. Colin Woodall, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, joined the lineup of guest speakers to cover the political environment affecting beef production and what to expect for ag policy for 2025. both volume and value. Even with lower forecasted exports, Halstrom assured that beef demand is good and priority from our trading partners is leaning toward quality beef; price is no longer the most important thing. U.S. pork exports have been setting all-time records in both volume and value and are forecasted to continue breaking records in 2025, Halstrom said. “The U.S. is well positioned to be the pork supplier of choice for the future. Our theme this year has been focused on broad-based growth across the entire world.” Weather Going from the political climate to the weather climate, meteorologist Matt Makens discussed drought conditions and the importance of accurate forecasting models to improve drought preparedness. Since June, drought coverage has rapidly increased due to La Niña, with current figures above 50 percent in the United States. While El Niño events typically alleviate drought, La Niña worsens it. The strength and magnitude of these events also impacts weather patterns. Makens detailed historical data to support that drought frequency has increased since 1998. “Drought it not just a U.S. issue; global drought has expanded across northern Mexico, Canadian prairies, Brazil, Argentina and southern Europe,” Makens said. “You’ll want to watch these areas for global grain production.” Makens encouraged that these patterns of drought are all a cycle. He emphasized the importance of understanding oceanic patterns, particularly the Pacific and Atlantic, in predicting drought frequency. Neutral oceanic conditions are not beneficial for the cattle industry, which relies on El Niño for moisture. Looking to the future, Makens introduced probability mapping, which provides a more accurate representation of weather forecasts. He encouraged the industry to focus on the probability of the average forecast occurring, rather than just relying on average forecasts. This allows producers to make more informed production decisions based on the probabilities and be more resilient in the face of increasing drought challenges. “Based on reasonable confidences, the current pattern shows storms impacting northern states with a colder, wetter winter and keeping the Corn Belt at average precipitation levels,” Makens added. Looking at the spring and summer outlook, more frequently than not, heat will build across the Southwest and cooler to the east. Forecasting into summer, probabilistic forecasting supports the prediction of a stronger monsoon season with increased precipitation corresponding with cooler temperatures in the Southwest and High Plains. Cattle Supply CattleFax’s Kevin Good referenced sustainability in comparing beef production and cattle inventory: producing more beef even with a smaller cow herd. He reported that U.S. beef cow inventories are on pace to continue declining to new lows as drought continues to be a major headwind for the cow-calf industry. Strong calf values, weather, input costs and profitability are all factors affecting beef herd expansion. “Beef cow slaughter is down substantially, around 18 percent, which makes some think we are expanding; however, the cull rate suggests we are at least stopping liquidation,” Good explained. “Trim values, imports, cull cow values are all record high. Looking at where we’re at with this cycle, even though we have a much smaller herd, we are still seeing cow slaughter up or above the last cycle, suggesting we are not going to be as excited long term to turn around the cattle cycle as quickly. Looking at the heifer side, we haven’t seen the telling signs of heifer retention.” Beef cow numbers are on pace to be down 200,000 head on Jan. 1, 2025, compared to a year ago, making it the sixth year of liquidation in the beef cow herd. The number of heifers that will be bred in 2025 is expected to be elevated, which would indicate some expansion is taking place. The dairy herd is increasing its influence in beef production by adding more beef-dairy cross calves into the feedyard, nearly 1 million more per year vs. five years ago. Patrick Linnell, CattleFax, showed the dairy cow inventory on a slow and steady trend the last 25 years, but scale is important to look at, too. “Keep in mind, in the last 25 years, the dairy cow inventory has only varied half a million head from high to low. Contrast that to the beef cow side – we can move half a million head CONTINUED ON PAGE 98
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NTMxNTA5