January 2026 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN 25 Market Future Prospects 2026 and Beyond October feedlot placements were the lowest on record and average placements for the past year have been the lowest since July 2016. Beef Production and Consumption Total beef production is projected to decrease roughly 4.5 percent year over year in 2025 and is forecast to decrease about that same amount in 2026 and 3.5 to 4 percent in 2027. Fed steer and heifer carcass weights have increased sharply in 2024 and 2025 and will continue to increase. However, decreased fed slaughter will ensure that beef production continues to fall. Non-fed beef production, from cull cows and bulls, has been falling the most dramatically since 2022. Nonfed beef production is projected to be down 8.3 percent year over year in 2025, a decrease of 25 percent since 2022. Per capita beef consumption will decrease as beef production falls. Consumption is projected at 59 pounds (retail weight) in 2025, down from 59.7 pounds last year. Increased net beef imports partially offsets decreased domestic beef production. Per capita beef consumption is forecast to drop below 55 pounds by 2027. Cattle and Beef Trade Beef exports decreased as expected after peaking in 2022 with lower beef production and higher prices, but the decrease was aggravated in 2025 by tariffs and trade wars. Most notably, the United States is essentially out of the market in China at the current time. The impact of reduced beef exports was masked by the very dynamic domestic market and record prices in 2025. Beef imports were a source of much discussion and political focus late in 2025. Beef imports increased as expected but were impacted by broad-based tariffs. Brazil, the largest source of beef imports early in 2025, was hit with sharply increased tariffs in August that were removed in late November. Most beef imports are lean processing beef that supports the ground beef market in the United States. Beef Prices Reduced beef supplies, combined with persistently strong beef demand, have pushed retail beef prices to ever higher levels in 2025. Record retail beef prices in 2025 received intense political scrutiny as a part of a broader focus on food prices and inflation. While the federal government is trying several actions and making lots of market-rattling comments, the fact is that there is nothing political that will change beef prices quickly. In fact, beef prices are destined to go even higher as beef production continues to fall in the coming months. 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Figure 2. Heifers Held As Beef Cow Replacements Million Head, January 1 CONTINUED ON PAGE 26
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