48 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN January 2026 – such as fitting summer-calving cows into operations where that cycle works – also create opportunities to salvage value above commodity cull prices. Confidence, Drought and the Western Constraint One audience member pushed back on what he perceived as excessive pessimism from the panel and others in the industry. He pointed to low cow numbers, inflation and continued cuts in heifer retention as reasons for optimism. The panel acknowledged that regional drought recovery remains one of the most significant constraints on rebuilding in the West. For large, extensive operations, moisture, not price, is often the limiting factor. Hill noted that many large ranches simply cannot expand until drought recovery is secure. Sewell acknowledged that while retention remains limited nationally, momentum may finally be beginning to build. Biehler said “I’m pessimistic over seven years but optimistic over two years. Be confident, but safe.” Brandt closed the discussion with advice from mentor Joe Goggins: “It’s a great time to get your house in order.” Balance sheets strengthened during high markets determine who survives the correction that inevitably follows. Parsons reinforced that sentiment with the Center for Agricultural Profitability’s guiding principle: Know your numbers. Know your options. (For more, go to https://cap.unl.edu/know/) The Long View No single consensus strategy emerged from the panel, mainly because no single strategy fits every operation. However, the discussion did make it clear that rebuilding the cow herd in today’s market is about risk management, discipline and precision. Replacement costs are high. Cow longevity is highly varied. Drought remains unresolved. Genomic tools are reshaping selection. Tax policy has changed the calculus. Price cycles remain undefeated. Those who rebuild wisely will do so with: • Realistic assumptions about longevity • Tight control of development costs • Clear exit strategies • Genetics matched to environment • Balanced enterprise structures • Intentional tax strategy • Resource evaluation • Risk management and mitigation • Sober expectations about the next price correction History suggests that the next profitable cow cycle will not reward speed but will reward restraint and discipline. ~NC~ REBUILDING THE COW HERD CONTINUED FROM PAGE 46
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