38 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN October 2024 COW SLAUGHTER, GROUND BEEF AND THE BEEF TRIMMINGS IMPORT MARKET TARALEE HUDSON | GRADUATE RESEARCH ASSISTANT AND ELLIOTT DENNIS, PH.D. | ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA-LINCOLN | CENTER FOR AGRICULTURAL PROFITABILITY PEERS From the onset of herd liquidation in 2020, the domestic cow inventory has receded to a level lower than any previous cyclical contraction, reaching its lowest point in 63 years. As uncharacteristic as this shift in the cattle cycle is proving to be, it’s not surprising that other secondary effects are unlike those observed historically. As herd expansion looms on the horizon, beef production has slightly declined, creating implications for the ground beef market. Cattle slaughter, as outlined in the USDA-NASS July Livestock Slaughter report, totaled 2.49 million head, a 12 percent decrease compared to June 2023. Unlike the most recent cyclical transition, which occurred in a relatively short timeframe, the push toward herd expansion has not yet materialized. Beef cow slaughter reached an unprecedented peak in 2022. However, the year-over-year decline in total slaughter is largely due to the significant drop in cow slaughter that has occurred since the beginning of the year. So far, beef cow slaughter has totaled 1.46 million head, down 15 percent from 2023 and 20 percent since January. In contrast, steer and heifer slaughter to date has remained relatively stable and is only slightly lower from last year at 14.7 million head. Simply stated, cattle are being held for longer periods and are reaching heavier weights prior to finishing. Live weights of federally inspected cattle have increased by 3 percent, and the dressed weights have increased by 6 percent. For steers and heifers specifically, in the first half of the year, carcasses averaged 919 pounds and 842 pounds, respectively, representing increases of 2.5 percent and 2.1 percent compared to 2023. Reduced cow slaughter and yet-stable fed cattle marketings have led to broader implications for the ground beef market, and in turn, beef trimmings imports. Ground beef is a versatile and dependable source of protein and a staple item in the American diet. According to the Meat Demand Monitor Figure 1. Volume & Price of 50s and 90s Source: USDA-AMS (2024) and FAS-GATS (2024) 1 4 7 10131619222528313437404346495255586164677073767982 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 $/cwt Tons 50s tons 90s tons 50s $/cwt 90s $/cwt Figure 1. Volume & Price of 50s and 90s Source : USDA-AMS (2024) and FAS-GATS (2024) CONTINUED ON PAGE 40
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