36 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN October 2025 1/4 Horizontal Nebraska Cattleman Full Color Eisenmenger Farms, Inc. August 2025 “Big yard features, small yard attention.” Eisenmenger Farms, Inc. Joe Eisenmenger, General Manager ▪ Cell: (402) 920-0665 Customer Relations & Cattle Procurement John Eisenmenger, Yard Manager ▪ Cell: (402) 920-1933 Spencer Eisenmenger ▪ Cell: (402) 920-0658 ▪ 9,000 head capacity ▪ Within 100 miles of six packers – three of them major ▪ Within 60 miles of four ethanol plants ▪ Grain banking capabilities of corn ▪ Feed financing capabilities 26708 385th St. ▪ Humphrey, NE 68642 ▪ Phone: (402) 923-0401 ▪ Fax: (402) 923-0404 Eisenmenger Farms, Inc. PEERS FORGET THE ROAD MAP JEFF STOLLE | NC VICE PRESIDENT OF MARKETING As I pen this piece a week after Labor Day 2025, we’ve seen the Livestock Mandatory Reporting–Nebraska weekly weighted average dressed steer price land between $379 and $386.50 per hundredweight for the ninth week in a row. Interestingly, during that window, the weekly Nebraska Cattlemen Market Reporting Service (NC MRS) packer margin index has seen a range of nearly $365 per head – from a low of -$244.50 per head for the week ended Aug. 1 to a high of +$120 per head for the week ended Aug. 29. The sharp U-turn in packers’ operating margins can be credited to a dizzying August rally in boxed beef values that has seen USDA’s Choice Boxed Beef Index close above $400 per hundredweight for four consecutive weeks leading into early September. First, a few thoughts about this history-making cattle and beef complex rally: 1. There’s no road map up here – and it’s quite difficult to tell if there’s a shallow borrow ditch or a considerable cliff a few feet off the pavement! 2. U.S. beef cow numbers have stabilized, and the explosive upward market action throughout the cattle complex tells us than an expansion phase of some measure is underway. 3. Average days on feed have increased to the point that many historically reliable seasonal market indicators have become difficult to “trust.” 4. The (essentially complete) closure of the U.S. border to feeder cattle imports from Mexico since late November of 2024 is very much a factor in current overall supply levels – and therefore price levels – at both the fed cattle and feeder cattle levels, and we shouldn’t overlook that fact. How long is the leash for $17 to $20 per pound rib roll and strip loin subprimals at Sam’s Club and Costco? Or $5.50 per pound whole briskets? I’ll humbly submit that we don’t know. We’ve never tested consumer demand at those levels for an extended period. I’ve been of the opinion for some time now that the considerable improvements in overall beef quality over the past couple of decades have resulted in beef becoming somewhat of a “luxury” product – and we should be happy about that fact, not scared of it. Our industry is no longer in a spot where we compete directly with pork and chicken in terms of price – and that’s a good thing. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Jan. 1, 2025, Cattle Inventory Report showed a “beef cows calved” number that was 99.5 percent of the Jan. 1, 2024, data point. I’d assume that the Jan. 1, 2026, number could increase by 350,000 to 500,000 head, due primarily to a continued collapse in beef cow slaughter levels this year. That said, I’ll repeat what I’ve opined at NC meetings over the past 18 months or so – this pending expansion phase of the cattle cycle is NOT likely to be akin to the very aggressive 2014-2017 rebuild for a myriad of reasons. Nonetheless, the market is now clearly going about its work of “buying more cows” and hopefully maintaining a sufficient labor force to own/manage them. The cattle feeding industry has never seen such an extended positive spread between feedlot costs of gain (i.e., marginal costs) and prevailing fed cattle prices (i.e., marginal revenues) as has been the case over the past couple of months. Under those circumstances, average days on feed continue to be extended, and seasonal features in the market (i.e. the appearance of a significant number of fall-placed calves on weekly showlists along the I-80 and I-29 corridors) continue to be “pushed back” on the calendar. CONTINUED ON PAGE 38
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