June/July 2026 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN 33 New Plans, Butler’s Pantries. Because once you have one… you’ll never want to live without it. A separate space to prep, store, and hide the mess—so your kitchen always looks this good. Andover #6186 1,860 sq ft For sale, video online 1-888-927-3272 1230 E 9th Minden, NE 614 Maple Clay Center, KS Wardcraft Homes Andover Butlers Pantry Click for a Quote at wardcraft.com wardcraft.com New inventory homes. The plans are designed. The choices are made. Your home is underway. Press the Easy Button tightness. While slaughter numbers remain limited in the near term, there are signs that retention may already be occurring. “We believe heifer retention started late last year and picked up again early this year,” he says. “That means by next year we could see a slightly larger calf crop, even if cow numbers don’t increase substantially.” At the same time, dairy beef cross cattle continue to grow as a portion of total beef supply, providing some relief without requiring traditional herd expansion. Still, short term supplies remain constrained – and that pressure is being felt hardest in margins. CALVES, FEEDERS AND A BROKEN VALUE RELATIONSHIP One of the clearest distortions in today’s market is the relationship between calf prices, feeder cattle and boxed beef. “When we first became short of cattle, feeders fed them longer to produce more beef,” Swift explains. “Then feeders started bidding aggressively for cattle – and prices just kept going higher.” Backgrounders followed suit, pushing calf and stocker prices up even further. Today, projected margins for feeding cattle often range from breakeven to significant losses, even at historically high fed cattle prices. Perhaps most concerning is the narrowing spread between feeder cattle prices and boxed beef values. “Historically, boxes traded $80 to $120 over feeder cattle,” Swift says. “Now, at times, feeder cattle prices are as high or higher than box beef.” That compression leaves someone absorbing losses, and increasingly that burden is being spread across feeders, packers and backgrounders. WHEN PRICES GET HIGH, DISCIPLINE MATTERS MOST High prices have a way of changing behavior, and Swift cautions that emotion can quickly replace discipline. “Producers do the same thing traders do: they get overconfident,” he says. “They assume the market has no ceiling.” History suggests otherwise. High prices invite competition from imports, alternative proteins and global suppliers. Demand eventually responds. The most consistent mistake Swift sees is delaying decisions in hopes of squeezing out just a little more price only to miss the opportunity entirely. WHAT A DISCIPLINED MARKETING PLAN LOOKS LIKE Even in favorable markets, risk management remains essential. Swift emphasizes that no single tool has captured the “top” perfectly in this cycle, but several have done their job. “Futures, options, strategies and Livestock Risk Protection policies all play a role,” he says. “The goal isn’t to hit the high, it’s to protect the operation.” As volatility has increased, so has the cost of protection. Option premiums have crept higher, reflecting greater uncertainty. Swift likens this to insurance. CONTINUED ON PAGE 34
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NTMxNTA5