46 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN October 2026 LOCATE ANGUS GENETICS SELECT MARKETING OPTIONS TAILORED TO YOUR NEEDS ACCESS AMERICAN ANGUS ASSOCIATION® PROGRAMS AND SERVICES CONTACT YOUR REGIONAL MANAGER TO YOUR ADVANTAGE POWERED BY ANGUS BUY THE ADVANTAGE. BUY THE POWER. BUY REGISTERED ANGUS GENETICS. angus.org/angus-advantage Will Harsh, Regional Manager 740-272-1386 wharsh@angus.org Colorado | Nebraska fruition, the time-honored November/December volume increases could set up for an active northern ow of numbers to close out 2026. As USDA has forti ed e orts to limit the spread of U.S. cases of New World screwworm (NWS) over the past six months, conversations around the eventual re-opening of the border to cattle trade have often focused on whether the infrastructure expansion at the cattle feeding and processing levels in Mexico during the 1.5-year closure would result in signi cantly less volume of calves and yearlings moving north once trade was re-established. USDA data through the last week of August indicated that 2026 cumulative fresh beef imports from Mexico were up 23 percent compared to 2025’s cumulative data point through the same calendar week. However, calf and yearling values within Mexico remained sharply discounted to prevailing U.S. prices for comparable types and weights. I’ll surmise that some portion of the 20 plus percent up-tick in product volume coming into the United States from Mexico could end up being temporary unless/until the domestic vs. export value spread of Mexico-origin calves and yearlings signi cantly narrows. If the market is allowed to function in an uninhibited manner, calves and yearlings will ow to the destination(s) where they have the most value. On several occasions during the past year, I’ve said the closure of the Mexican border due to NWS concerns was like putting U.S. beef cow liquidation on steroids. Here’s my reasoning. USDA’s Jan. 1, 2021, Cattle Inventory Report showed a total supply of yearlings and calves (excluding replacement heifers) outside feedlots of 26.26 million head. By Jan. 1, 2025, that number had decreased to 24.28 million head – a decrease of 1.98 million head over four years’ time – primarily due to the liquidation of U.S. beef cows. Now, let’s look at the additional decrease in feeder cattle supplies due to the closure of the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports. Working from a conservative 1.25 million head per year base from Dec. 1, 2024, coming forward through Sept. 1, 2026, (and factoring in the approximate 230,000 head that crossed during the short re-opening in the spring of 2025) the border closure cconstricted feeder cattle supply by an additional 1.96 million head – essentially doubling the tightening of feeder cattle supplies due to domestic cow herd liquidation. In summary, the path to $5 per hundredweight six-weight steer calves and $260 per hundredweight fed cattle this spring was paved, to some extent, by the re-emergence of a once-eradicated herd health concern that became part of a perfect-storm kind of short-term constriction to available calf and yearling supplies. However, this unique market factor is now likely to change directions, and the resulting increase in feeder cattle availability could conceivably be equivalent to two to three years of moderate to modest U.S. cow herd expansion within a much shorter time frame. ~NC~ MARKETS CONTINUED FROM PAGE 44
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