28 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN January 2024 PRODUCTION CattleFax Seminar Focuses on 2024 Cattle Market and Beyond KELSEY POPE | CONTRIBUTING WRITER Headwinds and opportunities were the focus areas of the CattleFax 2024 Outlook & Strategies Seminar, held in-person and virtually on Nov. 28, 2023, in Denver, Colo. The annual seminar shared U.S. and global agricultural market trends and weather analysis. Common themes throughout the staff and guest presenters were inflation and interest rates, weather, volatility in cattle markets and the outlook for the cattle cycle. Meat Demand Consumer demand for beef from retail, foodservice and export sectors have been historically strong and stable today but is looking at headwinds tomorrow. Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer, shared that our economic situation gives the consumers confidence, putting them in a position to buy more beef. The restaurant sector evidence suggests consumers are tightening their belts and scaling down to quick-service restaurants, which are expected to perform solidly in 2024. The concerns for beef demand are the amount of debt the consumer carries today, the squeeze on consumers due to inflation and disposable income leveling off – all headwinds for consumers to spend money on goods and services in 2024. Inflation is not nearly the problem it was a year ago, according to Jan Lambregts, RaboResearch global economics and markets. “We’ve gone from rates of 8 to 10 percent in the [Consumer Price Index], now back to 3 to 3.5 percent, and that’s good news. Inflation is looking to further decline, yet still showing that the economy is cyclically weakening.” Lambregts warned producers that, even with inflation lessoning, higher interest rates are here to stay and to pay close attention to managing interest rate risk. Weather El Niño is here but will not last long. Meteorologist Matt Makens forewarned producers to “pump the brakes,” we are not at the peak of El Niño just yet. Makens stressed that 1° F in the El Niño event can dramatically change the weather pattern across the country. In general, El Niño will bring drier conditions to the north and wetter condition to the south. However, these conditions can take time, which is why the drought numbers in Texas are still dominant. Strength of the event does matter. “If we continue in a strong El Niño this winter, we will have warmer-than-average temperatures in the north and cooler in the south,” Makens articulated. “If we are in a weaker event, warmer temperatures will be in the West and Southeast and cooler through the middle of the country. The separation of these two outcomes is a 1° F difference in temperature of the atmosphere.” Makens added that the current atmosphere is not reacting as strongly to El Niño ocean conditions, posting the 17th strongest El Niño event in the atmosphere since the 1970s and the fourth strongest based on ocean conditions. With El Niño coming into weaker conditions, Makens forecasts winter
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