January 2024 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN 29 temperatures to be warmer in the West and North up into Canada throughout the Rockies – a problem for snowpack. Temps are cooler than average from Colorado down into the Southern Plains and Southeast. For the Central and Southern Plains, March is the biggest risk for cold extremes and increasing moisture. The Corn Belt down through southern Mississippi will be dry through the winter, while more precipitation is expected through the Plains down to Texas and down both East and West coasts. The spring outlook shows the drought starting to take over again in the Southern Plains. Grain Outlook With a shift from El Niño to La Niña, Troy Bockelmann, CattleFax director of protein and grain analysis, expects 2024 total principal crop acres to be slightly lower than a year ago at 318 million acres. Corn production for the 2024-2025 crop year is anticipated to be nearly steady with last year at 15 billion bushels. Soybean production is expected to increase in the new market year to 4.39 billion bushels, based on increased acres and yield. CattleFax is forecasting planted corn acres at 92.9 million, with a trendline yield expectation of 183.8 bushels per acre for the 2024 planting season. However, weather patterns suggest yield will not likely meet trend. Corn prices are expected to drift lower over the next 18 months, as well as being less volatile and more seasonal as stocks-to-use levels continue to grow. “The largest increase in demand is expected to come from exports. Nearly all export markets are projected to increase with the exception of exports to China softening,” Bockelmann added. Continued drought has caused hay demand to be near record strong in some regions. “While both corn and hay prices found relief in 2023, it will take another good hay crop in 2024 to continue to see hay prices trend lower. Expect 2024 hay prices to average about $30 per ton lower.” An up-trending market for females is expected to continue. Troy Applehans covered profitability for cow-calf and stocker operators. El Niño is here but will not last long. Meteorologist Matt Makens forewarned producers to “pump the brakes,” we are not at the peak of El Niño just yet. Randy Blach addresses attendees of the 2024 CattleFax Outlook & Strategies Seminar on headwinds and opportunities in the cattle market. CONTINUED ON PAGE 30
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