January 2024 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN 31 Halstrom said that opportunities exist for exporting beef. “Pork production is down 20 percent so far this year in the EU, which is a huge void in the global protein market of pork. Why does this impact cattle producers? There is not enough protein in the world. This creates an opportunity for beef.” Cattle Supply Kevin Good, vice president of industry relations and analysis at CattleFax, reported that U.S. beef cow inventories are on pace to be down 620,000 head on Jan. 1, 2024, compared to a year ago. This liquidation phase is expected for the next 12 months. “Year-to-date in 2023, half of the nation’s beef cow herd on average has been in dry conditions and a third in drought,” Good said. “This is better than a year ago but is at a rate that would suggest drought is the No. 1 headwind.” Cow herd slaughter remains in a massive liquidation phase, down 410,000 head in 2023. Culling rate is on pace to be 12 percent, the third highest in the last 30 years. Cow slaughter is projected to be down 675,000 head in 2024, suggesting slight liquidation remaining in the beef cow herd. Heifer retention rates are telling the same story. “We have not kept the heifers back out of this year’s calf crop that we thought we would,” Good said. “The percent of heifers on feed at 40 percent is the highest in 20-plus years.” Beef replacement heifer numbers on Jan. 1, 2024, are expected to be historically low. Even after five years of liquidation, Good said cattle-on-feed numbers are above year-ago levels. “Much of it goes back to drought: placing lighter cattle, placing heifers and importing more cattle from Mexico. By the end of this year, we’ll bring in about 400,000 more feeder cattle from Mexico, and we would suggest that trend to continue in 2024.” As of Jan. 1, 2024, feeder cattle and calf supply are expected to be down 900,000 head, totaling 38.5 million. Cattle-on-feed numbers are projected CONTINUED ON PAGE 32 FEBRUARY 3, 2024 Real Bulls for Real Stockmen CAREFULLY BRED CORRECTLY DEVELOPED COMPLETELY GUARANTEED Offering: 160 coming 2-year-old SimAngusTM & Angus bulls Range-calved, raised outside in big country, ready for heavy service www.ssbeefbulls.com “Stockmen’s Source Beef Bulls” Nebraska’s largest offering of coming 2-year-old SimAngusTM bulls At the Jeremy & Gail Martin Ranch southwest of North Platte, NE 11144 W. Medicine Rd. - Wellfleet, NE 12:00 noon – Bulls Available for Viewing 3:00 pm CST – Cowboy Auction
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