32 NEBRASKA CATTLEMAN January 2024 CATTLEFAX SEMINAR CONTINUED FROM PAGE 31 to be up 200,000 head, near even with the five-year average. Fed slaughter is on pace to be down 1 million head in 2023. In 2024, look for fed slaughter to be down 800,000 head over the course of the year. Smaller fed and non-fed slaughter and lighter carcass weights all contributed to the trend of contracting commercial beef production, down 1.3 billion pounds in 2023. Beef-on-dairy crosses are increasing rapidly as dairy producers are seeing more value across all weights of calves. “As long as that is an incentive, we would suggest the dairy industry will continue to adapt that technology of using beef genetics and making up a larger percentage of the slaughter mix.” About 50 percent of the dairy industry is using beef semen, with that progeny ending up in a beef feedlot setting. That equates to about 9 percent of the cattle harvested today are beef-on-dairy cross, with the potential of about 15 percent by 2026. Maximizing Profitability Murphy forecasted the average 2023 fed steer price at $177 per hundredweight, up $22 from 2022. Even with increasing year-over-year prices, Murphy warns producers that there should be a spot market decline from the first half of the year high to the second half of the year low. Troy Applehans, CattleFax market specialist, covered profitability for cowcalf and stocker operators, revealing that an up-trending market for females is expected to continue. “The gap between female values and calf prices is expected to narrow due to higher interest rates and inflation,” Applehans said. As expansion is coming at a slower rate, higher cattle prices should be sustained. Regional bred cow prices shift when certain areas have more abundant or a lack of moisture. “As a result, the total calf crop is not expected to grow as rapidly as the last cattle cycle,” Applehans said. “This is expected to place more market leverage toward the cow-calf and stocker producer segments moving forward.” CattleFax CEO Randy Blach concluded the seminar with a positive but cautious outlook summary. With heifer retention not yet starting, Blach said the smallest harvest numbers and beef production are slated for 2025-2026 with prices expected to peak during this time. Further complicating markets is the headwind of high interest rates and a lack of confidence in the market. Beef demand has proven to be resilient with solid Choice demand. There is some weakness in Prime or similar markets, and more weakness ahead as prices climb. “Beef prices have anticipated the smaller production levels and have moved sharply higher from 2020 to 2023,” Blach said. “2023 was the accelerated trend year in prices; 2024 and 2025 won’t be as dynamic, but prices will still average higher.” Industry profitability will continue to swing in favor of the cow-calf producer as excess feeding and packing capacity chases a declining supply of feeder cattle and calves. For more cattle market analysis and membership, visit CattleFax.com. ~NC~ www.jandcsimmentals.com J&C SIMMENTALS Jay Volk 402-720-7596 Clark Volk 402-720-3323 Adam Stutzman 402-641-2282 volkjk@aol.com PB SM Hook’s Eagle 6E x /CS Cool L001 Saturday, January 27, 2024 l 12:30 pm Washington County Fairgrounds, Arlington, Nebraska L174 PB SM LCDR Fireproof 206H x J&C Ms Long Haul E174 Open SM Heifer Main Event x Zoom/SS Reality L981 “The percent of heifers on feed at 40 percent is the highest in 20-plus years.” — Kevin Good
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NTMxNTA5